Disclosure issues- voluntary versus mandatory

Now a day’s most of the companies are trying to find out ways to attract as much capital as possible. With the continuation to wards market globalisation the urge to introduce harmonise global accounting standards have been increased. In order to attract larger amount of capital in the different regions of the world it is important for the companies to present the information in the financial statements, which is understandable by a diverse group of people. Most of the world organisations are trying to find out ways towards the general standards.The formation of IASC in 1973, was the result of such efforts by different countries including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, UK and US. This international body has issued more than 30 International Accounting Standards and has given a general presentation of the framework of the preparation and information availability of information in the financial statements. Although the organisation has adopted English as its formal language but the standards are translated into many other languages used in the world to make them understandable by as many people as possible.The main hindrance in the way of the use of common standards between the nations is that they are not legally imposed. The use of International Accounting Standards is a voluntary act of the countries. (Taylor & Pincus, 2002; p. 39) 2. Definition of Risk: Smith (1999) defines risk as a decision expressed by a range or possible outcomes with attached probabilities. When there is a range of possible outcomes but no assumed probabilities, there is only uncertainty (ibid. ).Hertz & Thomas (1984) have suggested that â€Å". Risk means uncertainty and the results of uncertainty†¦ risk refers to a lack of predictability about problem structure, outcomes or consequences in a decision or planning situation. † Risk is defined, as a bad notion is the most important stimulants for life. Uncertainty, far from being a symptom of im perfection, is in fact a natural property of economics, indeed, probably of all life systems . . .. Uncertainty is the name of the game in the service economy. (Giarini, 2000)According to (Feynman, 1998) it is in the admission of ignorance and the admission of uncertainty that there is hope for the continuous motion of human beings in some direction that doesn't get confined, permanently blocked, as it has so many times before in various periods in the history of man. † Adams (1995) defines risk as the â€Å"balancing act† in which the actors â€Å"balance the expected rewards of their actions against the perceived costs of failure† in a world in which both it and our perceptions of it are constantly being transformed by our effect on the world and its effect on us.In a ISO/TMB Risk Management Terminology Paper (1999) risk is defined as combination of the probability of an event and its negative or positive consequences,† The royal Society (1983) defined ri sk as â€Å"a particular adverse event occurs during a stated period of time, or results from a particular challenge. † Importance of Risk Disclosure: Murphy (1999) sees Financial reporting and financial statements in particular can be thought of as a lens through which one could view a business.Financial reporting provides a broader view of the business than that provided by financial statements only. In other words, financial reporting encompassed financial statements, but it is not limited to financial statements. It is assumed that by providing information that meets the needs of investors and creditors, the company also meet the information needs of other external parties, it would be able to provide superior information if it treated each potential group of external users separately and prepared different information for each group.This approach is impractical, however, and the company instead out for preparing what is referred to as general-purpose information that we believe is useful to multiple user groups. With the change in the economic environment the list of factors of production has included intangible assets such as information and knowledge. The intangible assets are replacing the old sets of assets. â€Å"In order to keep on delivering profits the business must keep on investing in different projects in order to improve their organizational capabilities.These investments improve the capabilities of the business to respond to the customer demands, the external contacts of business reduces the risks attached to the products, internal integration improve the productivity of organization continuous experimenting not only improve the value creation but also enhance the image of the organization in business. These investments are very important for the businesses to survive it is necessary to measure the cost, inventory, space and quality savings measured by traditional capital budgeting systems.Most of the traditional accounting techniques measure the future flow of income by undertaking an investment which is not easy to calculate since the stream of income is expected to increase in future and the managers cannot decide to assign the right value to the future benefit. Rather than that it is easier to the calculate investment. This is due to the difficulty the future organisation face in calculating the future benefits; most organisations normally do not undertake new investments. (Enterweb, 2005)The use of intangible assets has created difficulties on the other hand also. People believe in what they see. The process of interaction of ideas and assets has been revolutionised. Developing trust and understanding with stakeholders is very important in order to turn knowledge in value. Today, the companies are required to report the performances not only on financial basis but also should under cover the issues such as vision, strategy, risks, value drivers, KPIs etc.The founders of the Global Association of Risk Profes sionals (GARP), Lev Borodovsky and Marc Lore, wrote in Risk Professional, â€Å"no matter what types of methods are used, the key to risk management is delivering risk information, in a timely and succinct fashion, while ensuring that key decision makers have the time, the tools, and the incentive to act upon it. † (Lev & Lore, 1997) Externally reported financial information is largely historical in nature. It looks back in time and reports the results of events and transaction that already have occurred.While historical information is very useful in assessing the future, the information itself is more about the past than it is about the future. A comparison of the historical trends with the future trends can be found helpful in better understanding of the information by the shareholders and other related people. (Financial Economists Roundtable, 1996) The improvement in public scrutiny and controlled market discipline is largely dependent upon the meaningful and accurate dis closure of information.This not only helps the shareholders but also helps the organisation to conduct business in a safe and efficient manner by achieving their targets through improving their risk management processes. The researchers find many gaps in the appropriate disclosure of risk by the organisations. Many surveys have been conducted, a wide variety of studies and interviews from the information users and shareholders have pointed out towards gaps in the currently disclosed information. The demand of provision of accurate and timely information is increasing.Business reporting effect people from every work of life an effective allocation of resources strengthens an economy by promoting productivity, innovations and an efficient and liquid market. Adequate information plays an important role in reporting the risks and opportunities of investing in business venture. To make effective decisions people need accurate information. The completeness and timeliness of information en hances the probability of taking the most appropriate decisions by the investors.Perhaps the foremost social and ethical responsibility levied upon private and public organisation in recent decades is the adoption of fair and just accounting practices. This responsibility is being increasingly codified in laws and various accounting standards. Its influence is becoming increasingly pervasive through a constant series of new and improved standards as well as steady enlargement in the size and scope of administering agencies.The voluntary disclosure of information by the companies will lead to the competitive advantage for the company in the market and will provide help to gain enormous amounts of capital all over the world. US Regulations for Risk disclosure: The US GAAP was founded in 1930 after one year of the historical depression in the US stock market in 1929. Till 1934 the companies kept on disclosing the information voluntarily. SEC was established in 1934 with the authority t o establish the accounting standards but also to make sure that these standards are used in the preparation of the disclosures.Since the issue was very complex the private sector also started assisting the SEC in 1938 in order to settle the accounting standards. The most important and unique characteristic of the US GAAP is that its strength is tested in the market in which retail investors with banks and entrepreneurs invest. Now FASB is responsible to set US accounting standards. The ultimate responsibility of protecting the interest of the financial information users lies on SEC and it is fulfilling its functions since decades by constantly forming and developing set of accounting standards according to changing needs.A history of 70 years of interpretation and implementation of US GAAP in different industries has make it one of the most reliable and applicable set of standards. This application of 70 years has helped the accounting practitioners and professionals in filling the gaps and flaws in these standards which has not make them perfect but improved their reliability and tested their strength. The main hurdle in the way of adoption of IFRS for US is that the application and strength of IFRS is not tested for as long as the US GAAP.IFRS are relatively newly developed as compare to US GAAP. The decision to change the US GAAP into the IFRS cannot be taken in a snapshot the process will be time taking, as a huge change is needed to be brought. The EU adoption of the IFRS was very steady and easier as compare to the US. This is because the unification of 25 countries in a union with different economic, cultural and social background is a big task in itself hence the change of accounting standards is a relatively important but small part of it.Despite all the differences in the financial market environment the U. S see the implementation of the IFRS as an opportunity to implement and introduce the better standards to improve the creditors accessibility. Th e process of convergence has started of the U. S GAAP in the IFRS, which will come to success if mutual consensus will be developed. The cutting edge IFRS has that they have prepared by the most experienced and brilliant accounting professionals but has a negative point of not having a long history of implementation and strength testing.International Accounting Standards: In the January of the year 2006 the accounts of all the listed companies shifted to the International Financial Reporting Standards. Under the International Financial Reporting standards all the listed companies should present their fair information regarding the company’s financial position, performance and cash flows. Despite the pressure from the International accounting agencies, some of the Governments are still reluctant to impose International accounting standards in their stock markets.Although there are big differences in the accounting standards in most of the economies of the world but the main ai m of all the accounting systems is to ensure fair and transparent corporate governance and financial reporting. The adoption of the International standards will lead to decrease in the accounting scandals and increase the adoption of common standard all over the world. Conclusion: Degree of Information varies largely from institution to institution. The amount of information made available to the shareholders largely depends upon the volume of financial instruments and the type of financial instruments used by the company.It is estimated that the shareholders of a financial institution is more required to have the risk related information as compare to that of the shareholder of an industrial company. Financial risks are the important part of the financial business operations on the other hands it is generally a by-product of an industrial company’s daily business. At the very minimum, a company should keep shareholders informed about the types of financial instruments used a nd their purposes.It must make a distinction between instruments that are used for hedging and those that are not, as well as the relevant accounting policies. It should disclose the notional principal of these instruments, their maturity, cash requirements, market value and credit risk. It should also tell shareholders how the firm monitors the values of these instruments. Where possible, firms should also disclose the firm’s market risks; if quantitative information is not possible then a qualitative discussion should be included. (13 Questions on Risk Management)

Approval Sheet

THIRD SEX IN THE CITY: GAYS SPEAKS ON SWARDSPEAK Mrs. Estrella Fajardo A thesis Presented to the Faculty of College of Arts and Letters Bulacan State University City of Malolos, Bulacan In partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for ENG 123 Bachelor of Secondary Education major in Mathematics 1-C By Divine Catyrine D. J. Magsakay Joana Marie Hernandez Regino Intal Mae Ann Lilio Maryanne Lasquite Allen Jade Magana March, 2013 APPROVAL SHEETIn partial fulfillment of the requirements for ENG 123 of Bachelor of Secondary Education major in Mathematics 1-C, this thesis entitled THIRD SEX IN THE CITY: GAYS SPEAKS ON SWARDSPEAK, has been prepared and submitted by Divine Catyrine D. J. Magsakay, Joana Marie Hernandez, Regino Intal, Mae Ann Lilio, Maryanne Lasquite and Allen Jade Magana who is hereby recommended for oral examination. ______________________ Mrs Estrella Fajardo Subject Professor In partial fulfillment of the requirements for ENG 123 of Bachelor of Secondary Education major in M athematics 1-C. __________________________Luzviminda F. Tantoco, Ed. D. Dean, College of Education March, 2013 DEDICATION This humble work is lovingly dedicated to the sources of my inspiration. First and Foremost to the Almighty God for His guidance and countless blessings and to our families, relatives, teachers, friends, and colleagues for their prayer, moral support and who have helped us in carrying out this task. Researchers~ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The researchers wish to express their sincere gratitude and profound appreciation to the following people for their invaluable support which made the preparation of this study possible.First and foremost, to the Almighty God, for leading her Wisdom and will to continue this; Mrs Estrella Fajardo, our professor, for her unending patience, continuous guidance and for granting her the opportunity to finish this paper and for letting us do the study. To Ms Rachelle Almuete for helping me to finish this thesis with the help of her family. To ou r very unique classmates, Bachelor of Secondary Education major in Mathematics 1-C, for their incisive critics and comments. To all our colleagues and friends in Bulacan State University especially in College of Education for taking time in answering the questionnaire.To our beloved families, for their sacrifices, love and support and for giving us the will to finish this. And to all of who, in one way or another helped, the researchers’ sincerest thanks and gratitude! ABSTRACT The study attempted to answer the general questions: (1) The number of Gaylingo speakers; (2)The number of people who understand Gaylingo ; (3) How to prevent the usage of Gaylingo nowadays? The following are the significant findings of the study: (1) Not all people love to speak Gaylingo,: (2) It was not just gays or the third sex used it; (3) It creates friens who have the same interest.Based from the problems, this hypothesis were formulated: (1) the rate of understanding of Gaylingo was depending o n the environment of the person being question ; (2) The usage of Gaylingo I our literature is somewhat not so famous, but nowadays, Gaylingo is one of the most used Jargon language which led to the readers to learn how to speak Gaylingo; (3) Gaylingo, for those who don’t want to learn it, will be prevented with the helped of ou literature. The reaserchers applied this methods; (1) surveying; (2) questionnaire; and (3) interview. Keywords: Gayspeak, Swardspeak, Sex TABLES OF CONTENTSTITLE PAGE†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. i THESIS ABSTRACT†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ii APPROVAL SHEET†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã ¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. AUTHOR’ DEDICATION†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ TABLE OF CONTENTS †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. CHAPTER ITHE PROBLEM AND ITS BACKGROUND Introduction†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Statement of the Study†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Si gnificance of the Study†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Scope and Delimination†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Notes in Chapter I†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. IITHEORETICAL FRAMEWORK Relevant Theories†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Review of Realated Literature†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Review of Related Studies†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Conceptual Framework†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Hypothesis†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Definition of Terms†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Notes in Chapter II†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ IIIRESEARCH METHODOLOGY Methods and Techniques Used†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Population of the Study†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Research Instruments†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Data Gathering Procedure†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Data Processing and Statistical Treatment†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. Notes in Chapter III†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. IVSUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS and RECOMMENDATION Summary of Findings†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ Conclusions†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. Recommendation†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.

Discussion feedback(Project Management Assignment) Assignment

Discussion feedback(Project Management ) - Assignment Example You have also noted that you need to work on your self-assurance. It is very important that you work on this skill because in a project, all members draw their strength and inspiration from the team leader. You seem to have a lot of good characteristics but there is a need to work on them such that you become a great leader. Being decisive is very important because leadership has more to do with making decisions than anything else. If you are not decisive, it might be hard to lead a team through a crisis moment. Therefore, you need to work on this characteristic. A good analysis on why leadership and communication are very important for success of a project. Unfortunately, you seem to consider turnover of team members as not a very important setback. This might not be always the case. Consider a turnover of members in a highly technical project, any replacement of the old members may require substantial time for training and bringing them up to speed. Kindly note that having technical skills may not necessarily mean you can join any technical project in your field at any point and continue working without causing disruptions. Communication to you comes out as a very significant factor in ensuring that projects succeed. If there is good communication, everything is likely to roll out as planned. I like the manner in which you relate the housing bubble with learning lessons from the past. That is definitely one way in which business leaders can learn from the past. You are right that cost estimation is necessary in order to determine the viability of a project and thus decide whether to go on with it or not. You also correctly note that work breakdown structure is required to determine what it will take to complete the project and identify any challenges which may be encountered. That is a good analysis there. A good attempt at relating cost estimation with work breakdown structure and project planning schedule. You

McDonald's Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

McDonald's - Case Study Example However, McDonalds, though made efforts to change its menu, but the market lost to Wendy's and other competitors could not be recaptured because it was too late to enter the market. 1) McDonald shall further explore its differentiation process. Over the period of time it relied heavily on cleanliness and other USPs however it needs to create its differentiation in terms of food. The relatively increasing concerns shown by different circles suggest that McDonald's food is not good for health therefore it needs to create differentiation through cutting edge new research to prepare more nutritional products. 2) Second alternative strategy which McDonald can employ is Focus. A differentiation Focus and Low Cost focus would enable it to concentrate more on its core competencies rather than considering external environment as the source of its problems. Given the facts presented in Case study, it is important for McDonald's to focus more on its customer preferences. It may arrange focus groups or conduct market research to understand exactly what customers' needs are and then shall tailor its strategies to accommodate those preferences.

Identify a standard used by the VA in its information security Research Paper

Identify a standard used by the VA in its information security program, then compare and contrast with another similar standard - Research Paper Example The department therefore contains a lot of sensitive information meaning that the entity needs the proper forms of internal controls in order to protect data on the different people that is contained within the system. It is therefore a requisite for the organization to adopt the best and most secure system as not only serves the veterans but liaises with other departments to ensure proper service delivery for the veterans. There are the mandatory standards that are required by the federal government and the other standards that the entities adopt in order to have a set level of pedigree within the global trends. One of the security requirements by the Federal government that the entity has adopted is the FIPS 200 that is a standard specified by the Federal Information Security Systems Act (FISMA) that is an important part in risk management (Norman, 2007). The security systems specified under this standard are important for ensuring the integrity, confidentiality and availability of the computer system and its information while ensuring that the risks that the company may face in the process have been significantly reduced. Under the FIPS200 standards there are the management safeguards, technical safeguards and the operational safeguards. The management safeguards deal with risk assessment and security planning factors while the operational standards are mainly concerned with the personnel security and the software and hardware maintenance within the organization. The technical safeguards on the other hand are concerned with the audit trails and communications protection (Norman, 2007). Th e FIPS 200 standard is applicable to all federal government information so as to require the protection of information against any unauthorized disclosure. The standards has the minimum security requirements that it requires of the organization in the different areas that

Can free trade withstand recession Dissertation

Can free trade withstand recession - Dissertation Example Demand for fair trade during recession 4.1 Consumer buying behaviour during difficult times†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦25 4.2 how will a prolonged recession effect the fair trade movement†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦26 References†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦27 Introduction: Fair trade is said to increase the level of economic activities within as well as across national boundaries. This provides greater levels of economic and financial advantage to national as well as international suppliers of goods and services and also increases the profit earning ability of these suppliers. This reduces costs of purchasing various goods and services both in national and international markets. Fair trade is expected to reduce the price elasticity of demand of variou s goods and services and also to affect the altruistic behaviour of consumers. During the period of recession or economic and financial crisis practices related to fair trade is expected to reduce the negative economic impacts by increasing the volume of demand and thus production and income. By controlling international prices for various goods and services fair trade practices are expected to make significant effects on economic policies used for preventing recession. But there are also some obstacles which are created by recession on fair trade practices. This paper is aimed at providing an answer to the question that whether fair trade can withstand with recession or not. 1. Fair Trade 1.1 What is fair trade? â€Å"Fair trade is a trading partnership, based on dialogue, transparency and respect that seek greater equity in international trade. It contributes to sustainable development by offering better trading conditions to, and securing... This paper is aimed at providing an answer to the question that whether fair trade can withstand with recession or not. Fair trade is said to increase the level of economic activities within as well as across national boundaries. This provides greater levels of economic and financial advantage to national as well as international suppliers of goods and services and also increases the profit earning ability of these suppliers. This reduces costs of purchasing various goods and services both in national and international markets. Fair trade is expected to reduce the price elasticity of demand of various goods and services and also to affect the altruistic behaviour of consumers. During the period of recession or economic and financial crisis practices related to fair trade is expected to reduce the negative economic impacts by increasing the volume of demand and thus production and income. By controlling international prices for various goods and services fair trade practices are expe cted to make significant effects on economic policies used for preventing recession. But there are also some obstacles which are created by recession on fair trade practices. The dimension of free trade arose with the development perspective of the excluded and disadvantaged producers with a view to promote sustainability to them and achieving better trading conditions. Fair trade is a concept arising from the realms of free trade. Therefore before elucidating the concept of fair trade a short discussion about the notion of free trade entails some necessity.

Personal REading Project Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Personal REading Project - Research Paper Example Beowulf is so confident that he uses no weapon to fight with Grendel. He fights barehanded. This results into ripping of his arm. Grendel surrenders and escapes. When he returns, he dies. The king thanks Beowulf for the great work done in defeating the enemy. They take the Grendel’s arm and hang it as a sign of trophy and victory of human nature over an evil creature. The mother to Grendel is angry of her son’s death. She is enraged. She decides to come one night and starts yet another menace mission. She picks one man and eats then runs away. The mother finds the son’s arm that had been in a hall. She gets away with it. The king is upset by the invasion of Grendel’s mother. He once again calls upon Beowulf to come and assist him to destroy the mother (Classen, 2007). The king makes promises to Beowulf in order to encourage him to accomplish the task. He promised him gold, treasures, and alliance with the people of the land. Beowulf comes along with his me n and invades the residence of Grendel’s mother. Beowulf swims to where the mother lives. They start fighting. However, he is so unfortunate that he is battered by the woman. Otherwise, she tries to harm him but is unable. Beowulf realizes that the sword does very little to finish her. She makes a mistake of swimming to her battle hall where they continue to fight. He discovers a magic sword on the wall of the battle hall. He grabs the sword and slashes her head resulting into accomplishment of the task. The sword is a special weapon. It had been created by ancient monsters. Beowulf swims around and finds Grendel’s arm. He also finds his body and cuts off his head. He gets away with the head and the arm as trophies of the victory. Beowulf swims to where his men are waiting. He finds that the king’s men had already left after predicting that Beowulf had been defeated. Beowulf and his men return to Hrothgar. The king rewards him with gold. The king also

Evolution Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Evolution - Essay Example The Theory of Inheritance of Acquired Characteristics put forward by Jean-Baptiste Lamarck in 1809 states that modifications acquired during one’s lifetime are inherited by the next generation. â€Å"Ex. giraffes acquired a long neck slowly over time as each generation of giraffe stretched its neck slightly longer in trying to reach leaves high in trees† (Principles of Evolution, n. d). Lamarck’s theory seems to be in agreement with the Darwinian Theory which states that evolution produces life forms adapted to their environments. However, Lamarck argued that the organism itself can control the direction of change whereas Darwin did not agree with that postulate. â€Å"For a long time it was mistakenly thought that evolution was a simple linear progression, with humankind at the top of the ladder. We now understand that evolution proceeds with species on one branch giving rise to other branches and so on† (What is evolution?, n. d). We have lot of animals in this world which like the leaves in big trees. For example, elephants, cattle etc like the leaves of some big trees. However, these animals do not have such a big neck like the giraffes. These animals also should have tried a lot in the past to reach out the higher branches of the trees. But they never got their neck extended just like giraffes.

Artwork Essay Example for Free

Artwork Essay The â€Å"Self-Portrait with a bandaged ear† by Vincent Van Gogh and â€Å"The Two Fridas† by Mexican painter Kahlo Frida are depicting the artists’ deep hurt and emotional breakdown at losing their special person in life. However, the portrait â€Å"The Two Fridas† is representing the artist’s conflicting psychological mind more into details and straightforward than Vincent Van Gogh’s self-portrait â€Å"The Bandaged Ear. † In â€Å"The Two Fridas,† she uses various actions and clear setting to help viewers the theme of painting easily. The background is filled with the agitated clouds on the stormy dark sky and it obviously reflects her inner pain. Frida who sits on the left side portrays rejected Frida by her husband Diego Rivera. On the right, it represents loved and respected Frida by him. The two Fridas hold hands each other as if loved Frida tries to join unloved Frida’s suffering. It also implies her only companion is herself since she was six years old. She was isolated from other people due to her health problems. In â€Å"The bandaged ear,† Van Gogh pierces the viewer’s feeling using the facial expression rather than actions. His pale and thin face like Jesus Christ in a late medieval painting and every brushstroke that he made on the canvas tells his pitiful presence at the time. In fact, it is not easy to catching the purpose of the Japanese painting on the wall behind Van Gogh. For late 18th century, European artists considered the traditional Japanese art as a utopian aestheticism. So, he uses the Japanese painting for representing his lost paradise. Frida utilizes many symbolic and striking objects to illustrate her turmoil. The two hearts express her pain. The abandoned Frida’s heart is dying while the other Frida’s heart is whole. The unloved Frida is holding the surgical pincer to cut off a vein that travels through both Fridas’ hearts. Frida tries to stop the flow of blood from loved Frida on the right. Therefore, the blood is dripping on her white dress and it is the sign of danger of bleeding to death. In addition, her white dress is ripped open and it refers her broken relationship between Diego. Van Gogh simply uses fewer objects than Frida’s portrait. In combination of wearing a bandage across his ear to under his chin and his sallow skin imply his health condition is unwell. He may be shivering inside because he wears a coat and hat. Frida Kahlo has been associated with the surrealist movement which is the most influential movement in early 1900’s. This movement is influenced by Sigman Freud and Karl Max and they are well known psychologists. The surrealists believe the conscious mind repress the power of imagination so they are willing to depict their unlimited imagination. They expose the uncensored feeling as if in a dream. Also, they use many different kinds of symbols and colors to make art more details and straightforward. Unlike surrealist Frida, the impressionist artist Van Gogh conveys the subject of his art by demonstrating the techniques of loose brushstrokes that barely forms the figure and it makes his piece sort of like a sketch or â€Å"unfinished painting. He uses not many different colors but instead he focuses on putting shadows or highlights in color. Both of great self portraits portray the artists’ mental and physical collapse in their own stylistic and unique techniques. However, Kahlo Frida’s painting is easier to analyze the subject of artwork than Van Gogh’s painting. Because, she chooses varieties of symbols and colors to express her strange and violent imaginations and it definitely helps viewers easy to define her painful heart through her painting.

To kill a eraser Essay Example for Free

To kill a eraser Essay The architecture of the ancient Roman Empire is one of the most fascinating and amazing of all time. In ancient times, the city of Rome had more than one million residents. The ancient Romans made great use of architectural shapes like arcs and columns. One famous structure that comes to mind when people think of Rome is the Colosseum, which was originally called the Amphitheatrum Flavium. The Colosseum is one of the most memorable architectural monuments in the world. For hundreds of years, the Colosseum presented gladiatorial fights, wild animal fights, and other games that entertained the Roman citizens. The cruelty of the games displayed the power of Rome to the people. The history of the Colosseum symbolizes the power and the greatness of Rome. The construction of the Colosseum started in the aftermath of Emperor Nero’s extravagance and the rebellion of the Jews in Palestine. Emperor Nero built a golden house in the center of Rome for his pleasure after the great fire in 64 CE. Emperor Nero committed suicide as he faced a military uprising in 68 CE and the Roman Empire devolved into civil war. The victory in the civil war went to Emperor Vespasian. He then decided to build an amphitheater or pleasure palace to give pleasure to the people of Rome to help people forget the war. The Colosseum was to be built on the site of a lake in the gardens of Emperor Nero’s palace. It was the largest amphitheater in the Roman Empire and was capable of holding more than 50,000 spectators.1 There were over 250 amphitheaters in the Roman Empire at that time, but the Colosseum was the largest. The large number of amphitheaters in the Roman Empire indicates that they represented essential symbols of the Roman culture. Vespasian began construction of the Colosseum in 72 CE and it was finished in eight years later by Vespasian’s son, Emperor Titus.2 The Colosseum was officially known as the Amphitheatrum Flavium at first. After the Colosseum was finished, Titus sponsored the inaugural games in the arena, which lasted more than 100 days.3 Cassius Dio, a Roman historian, wrote that during the inaugural games in the Colosseum, more than 9,000 wild animals were killed.4 The Colosseum was used for many games, including gladiatorial combats and wild animal fights to pleasure the people of Rome. The gladiators of Rome were usually slaves, prisoners of war or criminals. However, some gladiators were volunteers who risked their legal and social standing and their lives by fighting in the arena. Gladiators were despised as slaves and they were treated very badly. They were even segregated when they died. Most of the gladiators were men, but there were a few female gladiators. One contest after another was staged in the course of a single day. When the ground of the Colosseum became too soaked with blood, it was covered with a fresh layer of sand and the battles continued. Cameron Hawkins, an assistant professor of history at the University of Chicago, estimates 5,000 gladiators could have been killed each year during the Roman Empire.5 The gladiatorial games in the Colosseum continued until Christianity progressively put an end to the entertainment that included the death of human beings. After four centuries of active use, the magnificent Colosseum faced severe problems, and until the 18th century it was used largely as a source of building materials. Over time the Colosseum was used for many things besides gladiatorial combat and wild animal fights. The Colosseum was occasionally filled with water to re-enact naval battles using gladiators. Experts do not agree on how this was achieved. However, Cassio Dio wrote: â€Å"Titus suddenly filled this same theatre with water and brought horses and bulls and some other domesticated animals that had been taught to behave in liquid element just as on land. He also brought in people in ships, who engaged in a sea-fight there, impersonating the Corcyreans and Corinthians.†6 By the late 6th century, the arena was used as a cemetery. Also some areas in the Colosseum became housing and workshops. Areas were rented out to people until the 12th century. Around 1200, the Frangipani family took over the Colosseum, fixed it, and used it as their castle. In the mid-13th century, the Colosseum was severely damaged by a great earthquake that caused parts of it to collapse. Much of the tumbled stone from the Colosseum were not used to rebuild the Colosseum. Instead, it was used to build palaces, churches, hospitals, and other buildings in Rome. A religious order moved in to the ruined Colosseum in the mid-14th century and used it as their headquarters until the early 19th century. The Colosseum was frequently damaged. In 217 CE, the Colosseum was badly  damaged by a great fire that was caused by lightning. This fire destroyed the wooden upper levels inside the Colosseum. The building was reopened after restoration in 222 CE. The Visigoths, a nomadic tribe of Germanic people, took control of Rome in 408 CE, and they damaged the Colosseum during their invasion and their occupation of the city. The Colosseum was damaged again when a major earthquake hit Rome in 443 CE. Other earthquakes damaged the Colosseum in 484 CE and 504 CE. Eventually, the Colosseum was restored again and games continued in the arena. The Colosseum was not significantly damaged again until 1349, when another earthquake hit Rome and caused the south side of the Colosseum to collapse. This time, much of the tumbled stones were used to build other things and the Colosseum was not fully repaired. Later, various popes initiated stabilization and restoration projects in the 19th century to avoid further destruction of the Colosseum. For example, the faà §ade was reinforced with triangular bricks to enhance stabilization. Restoration of the interior was started in the early 19th century and was finished by Benito Mussolini in the 1930s. Over time, two-thirds of the Colosseum has been destroyed. The interior has been reconstructed but the faà §ade is still in ruins as half of it is missing. The Colosseum was home to such events as gladiatorial fights, wild animal fights, and other entertainment that was extremely violent. This violence symbolized the idea that no one could beat the Romans. As Lord Byron once wrote, â€Å"While stands the Colosseum, Rome shall stand; When falls the Colosseum, Rome shall fall; And when Rome falls—the world.†7 The Colos seum has become a famous tourist destination and the number one historical site that tourists will never forget when they visit Rome. The Colosseum is the symbol of Rome, as well as one of the most important ancient monuments in the world. ENDNOTES 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colosseum Accessed May 3,2013 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colosseum Accessed May 3,2013 3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inaugural_games_of_the_Flavian_Amphitheatre Accessed May 4,2013 4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colosseum Accessed May 3,2013 5. http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20100804/news/308049980 Accessed May 5, 2013 6. http://www.roman-colosseum.info/colosseum/water-battles-at-the-colosseum.htm Accessed May 5, 2013 7. http://www.flickr.com/photos/kauphyluvr/6845560363/ Accessed May 8, 2013 BIBLIOGRAPHY Spodek, Howard. The World’s History. Boston: Prentice Hall, 2011. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colosseum Accessed May 3, 2013 http://www.greatbuildings.com/buildings/Roman_Colosseum.html Accessed May 3, 2013 http://www.the-colosseum.net/idx-en.htm Accessed May 3, 2013 http://italy.worldwide-accom.com/rome/colosseum/guides/the-full-history-of-romes-famous-colosseum#.UX2r5LUvmC Accessed May 4, 2013 http://www.history.com/topics/colosseum Accessed May 4, 2013 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inaugural_games_of_the_Flavian_Amphitheatre Accessed May 4, 2013 http://www.roman-colosseum.info/colosseum/water-battles-at-the-colosseum.htm Accessed May 5, 2013 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gladiator Accessed May 8, 2013 http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20100804/news/308049980 Accessed May 8, 2013

Case Study: Elderly Patient with Several Concerns

Case Study: Elderly Patient with Several Concerns Daniel Littlewood   Case study Mrs Hiruni Jupangati You are an Enrolled Nurse working in the small public hospital in Cattelanbaa, rural QLD. This is your first job since completing the Diploma of Nursing and you have been working here for the past month. Mrs Hiruni Jupangati (born 20/05/1929) was admitted by her GP last night with exacerbation of asthma. She was born in Sri Lanka but migrated to Australia with her Australian Aboriginal husband whom she met during the 2nd World War. He worked as a stockman for a nearby cattle station until he retired to their small house in town 25 years ago. Their eldest son left home as a teenager and hasnt maintained contact with the family. Mrs Jupangati has 2 other children a daughter who lives on a sheep station just out of town, and a son who is a remote Aboriginal health worker in the NT. Mrs Jupangati has lived alone since her husband of 68 years died suddenly from a stroke 9 months ago. Although she is eligible for a place in a nursing home in Bigganbad, the regional centre 650km away, she is determined to see out her days at home. She receives support from the community nurse for wound care and her daughter who visits weekly to help with housework etc. She enjoys pottering in her vegetable and herb gardens, cooking Sri Lankan food, watching cricket and making robes for the Katina ceremony. Hiruni likes to spend time every day meditating, chanting from the Pali canon, and burning incense. The Buddhist monk visits once a month from Bigganbad and she attends the annual Poson and Katina festivals in Brisbane with her daughter. Mrs Jupangati has some mild short term memory loss and her GP noted she seemed somewhat confused during his visit. While she is normally independent in performing her ADLs, Hiruni attends to them once or twice per week. She wears a light pad for some urge urine incontinence. After 45 years of smoking heavily she stopped 5 years ago. Mrs Jupangati had excision of cataracts and insertion of IOL 2 years ago and wears glasses for reading. She can mobilise short distances independently with a walking frame. Mrs Jupangati has Osteoarthritis in her back, right hip and both knees. She had a left total hip replacement 6 months ago and is on the waiting list for the other joint replacements. She was diagnosed with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (DM) 5 years ago and has required insulin for the past 3 years. Her BGLs have been reasonably stable over that time. Along with Asthma and Diabetes, Mrs Jupangatis medical history includes Rheumatic fever as a child, Ischaemic Heart Disease (she had CABG 25 years ago), Congestive Cardiac Failure (CCF), and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). At age 67 Mrs Jupangati had a left mastectomy and axillary clearance for breast cancer. Treatment included radiation and chemotherapy. There has been no apparent reoccurrence although she has not complied with follow-up mammograms which can only be done in Bigganbad. Mrs Jupangati has had four admissions to the local hospital in the past 6 months. One was for a fall and the other 3 for exacerbation of COPD and respiratory tract infections. She has a small skin tear on her right forearm, a diabetic ulcer on her left foot, and 2 small scratches from gardening on her right lower leg, all of which are being managed by the community nurse GP. Mrs Jupangati has several missing and decayed teeth. She is complaining of painful areas on her coccyx and red right heel since watching the recent cricket test series on TV. She wears hearing aids though needs reminding to use them. Patient observations on arrival to the hospital were as follows: Height 150cm Weight 87kg BP 160/90 Pulse 108 irregular Respirations 32 Temperature 37.8C O2 saturations 84% room air BSL 8.2mmol/l Urinalysis pH 6.0, SG 1010, Nitrates +, Leukocytes ++, Blood ++, urine cloudy and offensive Current Medications: Lantus Actrapid Seretide and Ventolin inhalers Panadol Osteo Voltaren Gel (her daughter gave this to her last week to help with arthritic pain) Oxycodone PRN Frusemide Enalapril Prednisolone Atorvastatin Coloxyl and Senna Pending investigations: Chest X-Ray Blood tests Spirometry Mid-stream urine (MSU) Other orders: TED stockings Bed rest with toilet privileges Oxygen @ 2L/min via nasal prongs Fluid balance bowel charts Q2:Identify, list and briefly outline the use for the equipment required to obtain all of Hiruni Jupangatis observations and complete the assessment form. A2: As written in (Tollefson, J., Watson, G., Jelly, E., Tambree, K., Bishop, T, 2015, pp.10-30, 66-98) the equipment required to carry out the observations for Mrs Jupangati are: Gloves and hand wash aid in preventing spread of infection. Height and weight scales needed to find BMI. Calculator to work out BMI. Blood Pressure and sphygmomanometer with BP cuff to take blood pressure. Stethoscope to listen to heart beat. Pen torch to check if PEARL. Watch for RR and pulse rates. Thermometer with probe covers take temperature. Pulse oximeter to get Mrs Jupangati SpO2 level. Urinalysis Commode, bedpan as required/ PPE/ specimen container/ urinalysis bottle with regent strips/ paper towel/ perineal care equipment/ watch/ pen and paper. BGL Glucometer/ cotton balls or gauze/ lancet/ sharps container/ testing strip/ diabetic chart/ warm water. Computer / relevant forms and pen to document data collected. Satisfactory Needs revision Q3:List five (5) strategies you could implement to enable Heroin to meet her emotional, psychosocial and spiritual needs. Identify 3 ways you would ensure both her privacy and confidentiality are maintained while she is an inpatient. A3: Understanding how Mrs Jupangati culture belief view health care will help to tailor questions and treatment plans to the Mrs Jupangati needs. By asking Mrs Jupangati about her religious and spiritual practice, you can learn something about Mrs Jupangati health care choices and preferences. Get to know Mrs Jupangati health problems will help you to develop a care plan for Mrs Jupangati, also involve Mrs Jupangati in her care plan. Anticipate Mrs Jupangati needs this will show Mrs Jupangati that you do care and that you want to provide Mrs Jupangati with the best plan of care possible. Gain Mrs Junpangati trust by providing consistent, respectful and patient-focused care, follow through on commitments and have an accepting attitude rather than being judgmental (Crisp, Douglas, Rebeiro, Waters, 2016 pp 447- 449 ). Three ways you would ensure Mrs Junpangati privacy are environment which is drawing curtains, closing windows and doors. No gossiping about her to staff members and patie nts. Do not post anything about her on social (Crisp et al., 2016 p225). Satisfactory Needs revision Q4What communication techniques would you use when interviewing/assessing Hiruni and explain briefly how they would assist you. A4: Active listening is taking an interest in what Mrs Junpangati has to say through verbal signal, nonverbal gestures, and body language. Using active listening will help build trust with Mrs Junpangati(Crisp et al., 2016 p222 ) . Using body language and gestures is important in making a connection with Mrs Junpangati, by taking the time to make eye contact, smiling, leaning forward and focusing my attention on Mrs Junpangati will help make a connection with her(Crisp et al., 2016 p223). Asking open end questions will require Mrs Junpangati to expand on her answer. English is Mrs Junpangati second language Junpangati may have difficult communicating, then closed questions may be required. Mrs Junpangati cultural difference and ESL may require me to prompt her, using clarification/validating techniques to build trust(Crisp et al., 2016 p224 ). Satisfactory Needs revision Q5:Review Mrs Jupangatis vital signs and observations. Identify whether they are within the normal range. If they are not within normal range state what the normal range and variance is and what the variance may indicate. Discuss your relevant duty of care expectations as an EN. A5: An EN duty of care expectations are to document, ensuring confidentiality of all vital signs and observations immediately after they are done. Any abnormalities of the vital signs and observations should be reported immediately to the RN so further action can be taken (Crisp et al., 2016 p173). Satisfactory Needs revision Q9:Identify four (4) potential risks in collecting the MSU and discuss what you, as the EN, would do to minimise these risks. Briefly state what relevance an environmental policy/procedure would have to Mid-Stream Urine collection/testing. A9: Four potential risks are contamination, infection, urine spill and incorrect labelling. These risks can be minimise by making sure the container is sterile, not touching the inside of the container, the specimen is taken mid-stream as required. Wear gloves to avoid infection and contamination and follow hand hygiene policy. Use ppe such as gloves, apron and glasses in case it splashes everywhere. To avoid incorrect labelling fill out the label before you give the container to Mrs Junganati, verify with Mrs Junganati details as the label is fill out and make sure the correct test procedure is written on the label as well (Crisp et al., 2016 pp 648-658 ).The relevance an environmental policy/procedure would have to a mid-Stream Urine collection/testing is it would tell you how to dispose of the urine and container correctly (Crisp et al., 2016 pp 132-133). Satisfactory Needs revision Q10:Explain good documentation standards/principles you would use as an EN caring for Mrs Jupangati. A10: Good documentation standards/principles are making sure all documents are focussed, accurate. Complete, timely, understandable, always objective and legible. On every document must be the unique identifier or medical record number, patients full name, DOB, gender. For good documentation entries must be neat, legible and English, must have proper grammar and spelling, must be accurate and clear, use black ink which is easily reproducible, use approved symbols and abbreviations, use the 24hr clock time sequenced, all entries from students must be countersigned by clinician who is supervising, all entries must be signed by author, followed by name and designation, make sure all entries are factual (Crisp et al., 2016 pp178-181). Satisfactory Needs revision Q13:Using your knowledge of anatomy and physiology identify and discuss three (3) possible causes of Mrs Jupangatis collapse. A13: Mrs Jupangati has osteoarthritis in her back, right hip and both knees. She also had a total left hip replacement 6 months ago and is on the waiting list for other joint replacements. She has also been admitted to hospital in the last 6 months with a fall. Mrs Jupangati has arthritis along with osteoarthritis which cause the cartilage or cushion between joints breaks down leading to pain, stiffness and swelling. Mrs Jupangati may have fell because her joints gave way or they lock up (Nazarko, 2015). Mrs Jupangati has type 2 Diabetes, she is taking insulin injections for her type 2 diabetes. Mrs Jupangati is obese which may be the cause she has type 2 diabetes. With Type 2 diabetes, the pancreas usually produces some insulin. But either the amount produced is not enough for the bodys needs, or the bodys cells are resistant to it. Symptoms of diabetes may include fatigue, blurred vision and loss of consciousness (rare). Type 2 diabetes also increases your risk of a stroke. Mrs Janpangati might have miss her insulin medication, which means glucose cannot make it into the cells to provide energy to the body, which may have cause Mrs Janpangati to have fatigue, blurred vision and loss of consciousness which cause her to fall (Nazarko, 2015). Mrs Jupangati was admitted last night with exacerbation of asthma. She was admitted with a very high respiratory rate. Mrs Jupangati use to smoke for 45 years. Mrs Jupangati has COPD and asthma which cause narrowing of the airways. Mrs Jupangati is not able to get the required amount of air into her lungs because she unable to take a full breath. Mrs Junpangati is tachycardia which means her heart is working hard to supply the body with more oxygenated blood, which means the lungs have to work faster to oxygenate the blood as well. Mrs Jupangati may have had an asthma attack which may cause her unable to breathe and lose consciousness, which cause her to fall and hit her head (Nazarko, 2015). Satisfactory Needs revision Q15:List Mrs Jupangatis analgesic medications. Outline the process you would use to assess the need to give the opioid. Is an [E]EN authorised to administer the opioid? If so, explain how legislative and regulatory standards support this practice and how the EN would ensure these requirements are met whilst performing this activity. A15: Mrs Jupangatis analgesic medication is Oxycodone and Panadol Osteo. To assess to see if Mrs Jupangati needs her Oxycodone PRN a pain assessment will be required. A pain assessment consists of provoking/palliative factors what makes the pain better or worst. Quality what the pain feels like in the patient words. Region and radiation, where is the pain, does it radiate, does it occur anywhere else, have the patient point to where the pain is. Severity, have the patient rate their pain using a pain rating scale, ask the patient how much pain they have at rest and how much pain they have at movement. Time, when the pain began and how long did the pain last. Patients understanding of the cause of pain and what treatments have they tried to relieve it (Crisp et al., 2016 p1336). An EN can administer the opioid because it is a control drug. For a EN to administer Mrs Jupangatis opioid they must have written in instruction from one of the following dentist, doctor, nurse practitioner, p hysician assistant or surgical podiatrist and a doctor, dentist or registered nurse supervise, or they can give control drug to a person if has been dispense for that person doctor, dentist or registered nurse supervise (Queensland Government, 2016). Satisfactory Needs revision Q16:Review Mrs Jupangatis medical history medications. Identify urgent patient education needs, describe how you would go about this and who you would involve. A16: Diabetes, Mrs Jupangati needs to lead a heathier lifestyle I would involve the following doctor, dietician or nutritionist, accredited exercise physiologist/physiotherapist and her daughter. Blood glucose Mrs Jupangati needs to check her blood glucose levels at home to making sure she is within normal limits and Mrs Jupangati must take the required medication so the following people should be involve the RN, her community nurse and Mrs Jupangati daughter to ensure she carry out this. Pressure Area Care, Mrs Jupangati needs education on pressure injuries, how her diabetes will increases the risks, what can Mrs Jupangati do to minimise these risk and how Mrs Jupangati can care for her pressure injury. People to get involved doctor/RN speak to her and her daughter and community nurse. Wound care, involve Mrs Jupangati, daughter and community nurse. Nutrition get the following people involved nutritionist and her daughter. Advise them of what Mrs Jupangati should be eating and avoiding. Oral hygiene Mrs Jupangati needs to be refer to a dentist, educate Mrs Jupangati, community nurse and daughter, educate them on steroid medications effect on Mrs Jupangati teeth and educate them on mouth care. ADLs/hygiene involved Mrs Jupangati , community nurse and her daughter, explain to them why hygiene is so important when you are a diabetic because it can cause sores to become infected a lot easier. How to use puffers/spacer, involve Mrs Jupangati, community nurse and her daug hter. Explain the process with them and show them as well. When teaching Mrs Jupangati reduce environmental distractions, to compensate for Mrs Jupangati hearing loss and with Mrs Jupangati attention and concentration. When talking to Mrs Jupangati use a low-pitched voice, speak clearly and slowly, and face Mrs Jupangati while talking. Encourage Mrs Jupangati to use her hearing aid. Ask the Mrs Jupangati questions to verify that she has understood what been said, and give written information as backup to what youve presented orally to Mrs Jupangati. Mrs Jupangati has impaired vision, use adequate diffused light, and avoid having Mrs Jupangati face a direct source of light. Make sure Mrs Jupangati has her prescription glasses, make sure she is wearing them, and use large print for labels and instructions. Keep teaching sessions short for Mrs Jupangati between 10 to 15 minutes and schedule them to allow Mrs Jupangati to rest as needed. When teaching Mrs Jupangati any activity or skill, the pace must be set Mrs Jupangati(Crisp et al., 2016 pp 2 6-7) . Satisfactory Needs revision Q17:Identify potential causes of Mrs Jupangatis poor oral condition and describe how you could assist her in maintaining proper oral health. A17: Cause of Mrs Jupangati poor oral condition are diabetes if Mrs Jupangati poorly managed her diabetes she is at an increased risk of tooth decay and gum infections (Diabetes Victoria, 2016). She is a former smoker which can cause mouth decay. She is taking Prednisolone which may lead to bone loss in her mouth. She is taking steroids which can cause oral thrush. Mrs Jupangati has medicine for high blood pressure, analgesics and ACE inhibitors which cause insufficient saliva which cause gum disease because saliva keeps the mouth healthy (NPS MedicineWise, 2016). While Mrs Jupangati is in hospital I will help her with her oral care by assisting her with oral care twice a day. By assisting Mrs Jupangati I will educate Mrs Jupangati on why it is importance to do her oral care and it will get her in a routine. Educate Mrs Jupangati about diabetes and gum disease that she needs to have her BGL at the right level, needs to take her medication correctly and is to test her BGL regularly. Satisfactory Needs revision Q18:Discuss the potential cause of Mrs Jupangatis painful coccyx reddened right heel and explain why this might have occurred. Outline how the EN will manage this concern effectively. A18: Mrs Jupangati is 87years old, has diabetes, and limited mobility. As people age their subcutaneous fat diminishes and their skin texture flatten out. The loss of skin texture allow the epidermis to peel away, increasing the likelihood of skin tears. Mrs Jupangati has lost her skin texture and has poor blood flow to her extremities, especially legs and feet due to her diabetes. Mrs Jupangati poor glucose levels may result in a reduced blood supply which makes them more prone to infection, ulcers and pressure injuries As Mrs Jupangati has been watching the cricket sitting down for a long period of time without moving, she would be applying pressure on her coccyx and her heels on the couch. This would have interfere with her circulation because she was applying pressure which would have cause tissue death. The EN will need to do a waterlow risk assessment Mrs Jupangati must be move every two hours, the EN will need to put a mepilex INSITU on Mrs Jupangati heel and coccyx . Mrs Jupangati must have a wedge pillow under her shins and be given an air bed. The EN can wash and dry the area as well. The EN must educate Mrs Jupangati on pressure injury care and prevention, advising Mrs Jupangati to move every couple of hours. Informing Mrs Jupangati to use non-cosmetic moisturisers on her skin, check regularly for red or sores areas, and about hygiene (Crisp et al., 2016 pp724-736). Satisfactory Needs revision References       Crisp, J., Douglas, C., Rebeiro, G., Waters, D. (2016). Potter Perrys fundamentals of nursing (5 ed.). Australia: Harcourt Publishers Group Pty Diabetes Victoria. (2016). Diabetes long-term effects. Retrieved 2 19, 2017, from https://www.betterhealth.vic.gov.au/health/conditionsandtreatments/diabetes-long-term-effects Nazarko, L. (2015). Modifiable risk factors for falls and minimizing the risk of harm. Nurse Prescribing, 13(4), 192-198. Retrieved from CINAHL database http://web.ebscohost.com NPS MedicineWise. (2016). Prednisolone (corticosteroids (oral and injectable)). Retrieved 2 19, 2017, from http://www.nps.org.au/medicines/hormonal-and-metabolic-system/corticosteroids-oral-and-injectable/prednisolone-corticosteroids-oral-and-injectable Queensland Government. (2016). Health (Drugs and Poisons) Regulation 1966. Retrieved from https://www.legislation.qld.gov.au/LEGISLTN/CURRENT/H/HealDrAPoR96.pdf Tollefson, J., Watson, G., Jelly, E., Tambree, K. (2015). Essential clinical skills: Enrolled/division 2 nurses. (3 ed.). Melbourne, VIC, Australia: Cengage Learning Australia.

The Biggest Influence on The Lion King - Hamlet or the Epic of Son-Jara

The Lion King is Disney's most successful movie to date. Many believe that the Lion King is Disney's only original movie; the only movie not previously a fairy tale from one country or another. In fact, The Lion King is in on based on Shakespeare’s Hamlet. Disney writers conceal the basic character archetypes and simplified storyline in a children's tale of cute lions in Africa. On the other hand William Shakespeare’s Hamlet was based on the Epic of Son-Jara or Sundiata. This lead to the debate is the Lion King based on Shakespeare’s Hamlet or the West African story, the Epic of Son Jara. Simba, Hamlet, and Son-Jara are all heroes in their own story. All of them must take on a villain that knew very well, but who does Simba’s journey resemble the most Does Simba represent Hamlet, the prince of Denmark, or Son-Jara, the lion king. The characters in The Lion King closely resemble the characters in Hamlet. Simba, the main character in The Lion King, embodies Hamlet. Simba and Hamlet are the son of kings and both are the rightful heirs to the throne. â€Å"By pairing the play Hamlet with the Disney movie, The Lion King, students discover that both Hamlet and Simba represent the mythical archetype of exiled child whose role is to restore world order and who has an heroic task. Students also realize that they too are unique individuals on heroic journeys.†(Gavin 55) Hamlet and Simba, when he was a lion cub, were banished from their homes. Simba exiled himself because he believed that he killed his own father but, it was in fact his uncle scar that killed him. Hamlet, on the under hand, was sent off to college by his uncle Claudius. Claudius became the king of Denmark after death of Hamlet’s father. Claudius believed that Hamlet played a h... ...ng. Dir. Roger Allers. Walt Disney Pictures, 1994. Flim. Simon, Peter Ed. The Norton Anthology of World Literature. Shorter second edition, Vol.I. New York: W.W. Norton + Company, 2009 Nobumitsu .The Epic of Son-Jara. Simon 1552-1587 William Shakespeare. Hamlet. Simon 1782-1872 Gavin, Rosemarie. The Lion King" and "Hamlet": A Homecoming for the Exiled Child. The English Journal 3rd ser. 85 (1996): 55-57. Print. Paterno, Domenica R. "The True Lion King of Africa: The Epic History of Sundiata, King of Old Mali." Annual Meeting of the National Council of Teachers of English. Orlando. 16-21 Nov. 1994. Speech. "Q&A WITH THE DIRECTORS OF DISNEY'S THE LION KING!" Interview by Victor Medina. Q&A WITH THE DIRECTORS OF DISNEY'S THE LION KING! Web. 3 Apr. 2012.

Nursing Models :: Health Care, The RTL Model

A model is a simplified representation of the structure and content of a phenomenon or system that describes or explains the complex relationships between concepts within the system and integrates elements of theory and practice (Creek et al 1993). A nursing model is a collection of ideas and knowledge that represents nursing from the writers’ perspective, presenting different ways of looking at and understanding nursing (Aggleton & Chalmers, 2000; Hogston & Simpson, 2002). Thus, nursing model is a concept of what nursing is and are used as a tool to assess patient's needs/problems. Nursing model differentiates nursing from other disciplines and activities in that it serves the purpose of describing, explaining, predicting and controlling desired outcomes of nursing practices. Models can be tested, changed, or used to guide research or to provide a base for evaluation(Blais,2002). There are many models available including Roper Logan Tierney (RLT) (1996).The RLT model, which my portfolio is based, offers a framework for nurses to be able to ensure that individuality is taken into account when undertaking nursing care. In order to ensure that all aspects of an individual's life are integrated into an effective plan of care, Roper at al (1996) uses a problem solving approach and the nursing process in conjunction with their model for nursing. The RLT model is holistic, as it identifies five components, including the activities of Daily living (ADL), life span, dependence/independence, factors influencing AL and individuality in living, which are interrelated (Healy & Timmins, 2003; Holland et al, 2004; Roper et al, 1996). Roper et al (2000) view the patient as an individual that lives through the life span, with changing levels of dependence and independence, depending on age, circumstances and the environment (Healy & Timmins, 2003). The twelve ADL are influenced by five factors, namely; biological, psychological, sociocultural, and environmental and politico economic (Healy & Timmins, 2003; Holland et al, 2004; Roper et al, 1996). The RLT model individualises care using the nursing process. The model guides the nursing process, as it informs the nurse to assess the ADL (Holland et al, 2003; Roper et al, 2000; Tierney, 1998). Nursing models are flexible and can be altered to achieve individualised care, meaning the needs of an individual patient are met at a particular point in time (Radwin & Alster, 2002). However, it is not always achieved in practice (Waters & Easton, 1999).

Explaining of The Child Protection in The Wider Concept of Safeguarding Children and Young People

Explain child protection in the wider concept of safeguarding children and young people. Safeguarding of children is known as an umbrella term which means it involves everything to ensure the health and safety of the children. Safeguarding of a child is priority, whether it to be at home, nursery, youth clubs, in a social setting or in someone else’s care. Also whether it is an adult they know or don’t know or even another child, knowing the welfare of each individual child is paramount.In doing this there are many policies and procedures to follow regarding a child’s health and safety, in which companies have to enforce these policies and procedures in a child based setting. When a child based setting is recruiting new members of staff there are many checks that they need to do, the main check is their DBS checks commonly known as their CRB to ensure they have no criminal convictions, ever been on a sex offenders list or are a general risk to children.Communicat ion with a child’s parent is so important when it comes to a child’s welfare knowing how the child’s home life is and any concerns the parents may have about their child. Having a good working relationship with the parents and getting to know them is key, they are entrusting us with the welfare of their children. It is a difficult transition for parent sending their children to nursery for the first time knowing that their child is going to be safe and their well-being is going to be well cared for is reassuring to them.Making sure a child’s welfare is safe in all aspects of life is a vital part of their development in their learning capability, in their confidence and in the long term impact into adult hood. It is important that all staff know the correct policies and procedures if they have cause for concern, finding ways to do this is updating safeguarding polices regularly and retraining staff often to ensure this.Also setting up a CAF (common assessm ent framework) and making contact with multi agencies for a child who they have cause for concern for and putting  support in place for them is a good way to ensure a child in need is getting the best possible support, and them knowing that someone is there to listen and support them is reassuring to the child. Making staff stand out as staff with the correct uniform and ensuring ID is in full view for the parents and other staff to see clearly for identification.Making sure that the staffs don’t put themselves in any sort of situation to possible complains that can arise i. e.  no mobile phones or if any conflict with a child make sure it is handled correctly following the correct policies and procedure guidelines of your work setting. Also making sure schools and nurseries know who exactly are coming in and out of the building with a signing in book. There are all types of abuse, physical abuse, mental abuse, sexual abuse, neglect and verbal abuse, following the safegua rding policies and procedures will help ensure a child’s health and safety.Making sure these policies and procedures are followed correctly will give the child the best outcome in life. There are many ways to protect a child, at home, in a school or social setting. Unfortunately in today’s society there is a dip in the system when it comes to the protection of children, so many children are being put a risk. People need to be more vigilant to stop children getting abused in any sort of way. Every child matters they are our future abuse needs to stop, people need to become more aware to help prevent these things from happening.

Traffic Movement in Lufthansa Airlines: a Supply Chain Perspective

Journal of Services Research Volume 10 Number 2 October 2010 – March 2011 FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. Debadyuti Das Associate Professor, Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. The Journal of IIMT FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE Aniruddh Kr Singh Debadyuti DasThe present paper attempts to find out the forecasted passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines on quarterly basis at a global level by employing four forecasting methods namely moving average, exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model with the help of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. The study has also found out the forecasting errors of all the four methods through Absolute error (AE), Mean squared error (MSE), Mean absolute deviation (MAD ) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).The study also carried out the comparative analyses of the above forecasting methods in the light of the available data. The findings reveal that the forecasting errors are the least in case of Winter's model. Further the forecasted values suggested by Winter's model more closely resemble the observed data of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines. This provides a valuable insight to the top management as regards formulation of suitable strategies for addressing the varying demand of passenger traffic movement.Few strategies in respect of both demand side and supply side options have been suggested with a view to improving the overall supply chain profit of Lufthansa Airlines. INTRODUCTION irlines industry across the globe is currently undergoing recession due to severe financial crisis faced by the major economies of the world. As per the estimates of International Air Transport Association (IATA), globally air travel has declin ed by 2. 9% and 1. 3% during September and October, 2008 respectively compared to the same months in the previous year.Segment-wise passenger traffic estimates provided by IATA further reveal that the Asia Pacific Carriers and North American Carriers registered a decline in passenger traffic flow by 6. 1% and 0. 9% respectively in October, 2008 compared to the same month in the previous year. African Carriers recorded the largest decline in traffic flow by 12. 9% in October, 2008 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011)  ©2010 by Institute for International Management and Technology. All Rights Reserved. A 4 Forecasting the Passenger compared to the same month in the previous year. The remaining segments namely European, Latin American and Middle Eastern Airlines experienced a moderate growth in its traffic flow to the tune of 1. 8%, 4. 5% and 3. 5% respectively in October, 2008 (IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, 2008b). Howe ver, the financial crisis sweeping across the globe does not appear to have much negative impact on Lufthansa Airlines in respect of its passenger traffic flow till September, 2008 as revealed from the data provided in table 2a.A cursory observation into the table 2 further demonstrates that the passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines has been following a very systematic pattern since October, 2006 to September, 2008. There has been hardly any departure from the pattern observed in passenger traffic movement during the above period. Despite difficult market conditions, Lufthansa passenger Airlines was able to achieve a sales growth of 4. 2% and 0. 7% in September and October, 2008 respectively.It registered an increase in its passenger traffic flow in three major markets namely America (North/South), Asia/ Pacific, and Middle East & Africa both during September and October, 2008. American segment recorded a growth rate of 6. 9% and 1% during September and October, 2008 respecti vely. Asia/Pacific region exhibited an increasing trend of 8. 8% and 6% while Middle East and African region recorded an increasing trend of 2. 5% and 11% during September and October, 2008 respectively. Only European market experienced a declining trend to the tune of 0. 4% and 3% during the above periods (Lufthansa Investor Info, page 1, 2008).The above phenomenon has motivated us to apply the most popular and well-established forecasting methods with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines for future periods. The main objective of the paper is to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines at a global level with the help of moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), Holt’s model and Winter’s model by making use of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa Airlines.In addition, the paper has also attempted to find out the most suitable forecasting model for the above problem by comparing the forecasting errors of the above four forecasting models obtained through absolute error (AE), mean squared error (MSE), mean Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 65 Singh, Das absolute deviations (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The following section provides a brief review of literature. Section 3 provides a brief overview of Lufthansa Airlines along with the recent data on passenger traffic movement.It contains a thorough analysis of forecasted passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods and the comparative analysis of the same. Section 4 suggests few strategies for absorbing the varying nature of demand. The paper is concluded with a brief summary, potential contribution and limitations of the same. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Forecasting literature is replete with a number of studies ranging from simple time-series forecasting models to economet ric models as also the forecasting models employing artificial intelligence techniques etc.Researchers have employed the forecasting models with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of traffic for a particular period. However, the study findings reveal that there does not exist a single model which consistently outperforms other models in all situations. Quantitative forecasting methods can be categorized under three broad heads: (1) time-series modeling, (2) econometric models and (3) other quantitative models (Song and Li, 2008). Under time-series models, several techniques are available, e. g.Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model, Winter’s Model, ARIMA etc. (Makridakis et al, 2003). In time-series model, particular attention is paid to exploring the historic trends and patterns of the time-series involved and to predict the future of this series based on trends and patterns identified in the model. Since time-series models require only historica l observations of a variable, it is less costly in data collection and model estimation. However, these models cannot account for the changes in demand that might occur in different periods.The major advantages of econometric models over time-series models lie in their ability to analyze the causal relationships between the demand and its influencing factors (Song and Li, 2008; Makridakis et al, 2003). It is possible for econometric models to take into consideration several variables together, for example, air fare charged by an airline, competitive fare offered by other airlines, promotional campaign, perceived security threat, price and income elasticity of Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 6 Forecasting the Passenger demand etc. However, it is difficult and costly to collect data on each individual variable, incorporate the same into the model and explain its contribution towards the dependent variable. A number of new quantitati ve forecasting methods, predominantly Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, have emerged in forecasting literature. The main advantage of AI techniques is that it does not require any preliminary or additional information about data such as distribution and probability (Song and Li, 2008).Table 1 provides a brief overview of some related works pertaining to forecasting and traffic movement in airlines. Table 1: Brief Overview of Few Works Relating to Traffic Movement in Airlines Author Choo and Mokhtarian (2007) Contribution Developed a conceptual model in a comprehensive framework, considering causal relationships among travel, telecommunications, land use, economic activity and socio-demographics and explored the aggregate relationships between telecommunications and travel using structural equation modeling of national time-series data spanning 1950-2000 in the US.Proposed an artificial neural network (ANN) structure for seasonal time-series forecasting. Results found by the p roposed ANN model were compared with the traditional statistical models which reveal that the prediction error of the proposed model is lower than the traditional models. The proposed model is especially suitable when the seasonality in time-series is very strong. Developed a methodology for assessing the future route network and flight schedule at a medium-sized European airport.The existing origin and destination demand from the base airport across the world is considered. In addition, the growth rates by country or region is also taken into account. The future origin and destination demand in then converted into route traffic subject to a threshold for direct service. Where demand falls below this level, traffic is reallocated via various appropriate hubs. Applied Static-regression trend-fitting model for the purpose of forecasting future tourism demand in North Cyprus.Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to China and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Applied different types of time-series forecasting modeling with reference to Australia for the purpose of forecasting business tourism and compared the forecasting accuracy of the models. Employed autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for the purpose of forecasting tourism demand at Greece.Hamzacebi (2008) Dennis (2002) Bicak, Altinay and Jenkins (2005) Kulendran and Shan (2002) Kulendran and Witt (2003) Dritsakis and Athanasiadia (2000) THE CASE OF LUFTHANSA AIRLINES Deutsche Lufthansa (Lufthansa), the third largest airlines of Europe, is the world’s fifth largest airline in terms of overall passengers carried and operating services to 209 destinations in 81 countries. It has the 6th largest passenger airline fleet in the world.Lufthansa is headquartered in Cologne, Germany with its main base and primary traffic hub at Frankfurt International Airport in Frankfurt and a second hub at Munich International Airport. Lufthansa has built a premium b rand synonymous with quality, innovation, reliability, competence and safety despite operating in a tough market where cost cutting is commonplace. Lufthansa founded the world’s first multilateral airline grouping, ‘Star Alliance’ along with Air Canada, SAS, Thai Airways and United Airlines.At the same time, the airline invested in the most advanced passenger aircrafts and in 1999 it embarked on a vast IT programme that would transform the revenue and profit of its passenger Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 67 Singh, Das airline business (Lufthansa, Wikipedia, 2008). However, estimating the demand of passenger traffic for a particular period has always been the principal determinant in generating revenue for the airline. Table 2a shows the passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa (excluding the number in Swiss Airlines) Airlines for the period during October, 2006 to September, 2008.Table 2 (a): Monthly Traffic F low for the Last Two Years Traffic Year – Month Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Passenger traffic (in thousands) 4936 4327 3969 3851 3820 4668 4635 4991 5003 5241 5067 5193 5241 4604 4132 4141 4223 4625 5031 5152 5203 5171 4883 5164 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000Table 2 (b): Quarterly Data of Passenger Quarters Passenger traffic Source of data: Key data, Lufthansa Investor Relations, 2008; Lufthansa Investor Info, page 2, 2008 The monthly passenger traffic shown in table 2 (a) has been utilized to calculate the quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 68 Forecasting the Passenger (from Quarter 4, 2006 to Quarter 3, 2008) w hich has been shown in table 2 (b).With the help of these quarterly data of passenger traffic for the last two years, we have attempted to find out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement by employing four forecasting methods namely 4-period Moving Average, Simple Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Model and Winter’s Model. Table 3 presents the forecasted values through 4-quarter moving average while table 4 shows the forecasted data through simple exponential smoothing. Table 5 and 6 shows the forecasting through Holt’s model along with forecasting errors.Table 7 through 10 reveals, in detail, the forecasted demand of the passenger traffic flow by employing Winter’s Model. Table 10 also includes the forecasting errors. The exercise reveals that the forecasting errors are the lowest in case of Winter’s Model which are indicated by the values of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Moreover, the quarterly forecasted values suggested by Winter’s Mode l closely follow historical pattern which is clearly depicted in figure 1. FORECASTING THROUGH 4-PERIOD MOVING AVERAGE (MA) Moving Average method is generally employed in a situation in which only level, i. e. eseasonalized demand is present and neither trend nor seasonality is observed. We took the average traffic flow of four quarters starting from the 4th quarter of 2006 and continued the exercise till the 3 rd quarter of 2008 for the purpose of finding out the forecasted passenger traffic movement in the immediate following quarter. Table 3 presents the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement through four-quarter MA method. In the same table, the values of forecasting errors measured in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE are also shown. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 9 Singh, Das Table 3: Forecasting through 4-Period Moving Average & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) Forecast (F) Four Period Moving Average Method Absolute Error Mean Squared Error Error (E) (AE) (MSE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) 2006 Q- 4 13232000 2007 Q- 1 12339000 2007 Q- 2 14629000 2007 Q- 3 15501000 13925250 2007 Q- 4 13977000 14111500 13925250 2008 Q- 1 12989000 14274000 14111500 2008 Q- 2 15386000 14463250 14274000 2008 Q- 3 15218000 14392500 14463250 -51750 1122500 -1112000 -754750 51750 1122500 1112000 754750 2678062500 6. 31342E+11 8. 3076E+11 7. 67219E+11 51750 587125 762083. 3333 760250 % Error MAPE Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14392500 0. 37025113 0. 37025113 8. 64192779 4. 50608946 7. 22734954 5. 41317615 4. 95958733 5. 29977895 Formula used Systematic demand = Level Lt= (Dt + Dt-1+†¦.. Dt-n+1)/N Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (ES) Like moving average method, exponential smoothing is also used in a situation, in which only level is observed. However, ES attempts to smoothen the fluctuations observed in demand data o f different periods through smoothing constant (alpha).We first calculated the level of passenger traffic flow of the initial period by taking the average of actual traffic flow for the last eight quarters, which has been considered as the forecasted value of passenger traffic flow for quarter 1. Table 4 demonstrates the forecasted values through simple ES. The same table also contains the values of forecasting errors expressed in terms of AE, MSE, MAD and MAPE. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 70 Forecasting the Passenger Table 4: Forecasting through Simple Exponential Smoothing & Forecasting Errors Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 % Error 7. 0479897 13. 9977916 5. 02789835 9. 89599461 1. 02611209 8. 60018261 9. 04478131 7. 12621269 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 MAPE 7. 00479897 10. 5012953 8. 67682963 8. 98162087 7. 39051912 7. 5921297 7. 79965136 7. 71547153 Formula used Systematic de mand = Level Ft+1=Lt Ft+n=Lt Lt+1=alpha(Dt+1)+(1-alpha)Lt alpha=0. 1 Forecasted Traffic F9=F10=F11=F12=14241980 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Level (L) 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 8 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 14241979. 66 14158875 14066187. 5 13893468. 75 13967021. 88 14120419. 69 14106077. 72 13994369. 95 14133532. 95 926875 1727187. 5 -735531. 25 -1533978. 1 143419. 688 1117077. 72 -1391630. 1 -1084467 926875 1727187. 5 735531. 25 1533978. 125 143419. 6875 1117077. 719 1391630. 053 1084467. 048 8. 59097E+11 1. 92114E+12 1. 46109E+12 1. 68409E+12 1. 35139E+12 1. 33413E+12 1. 42021E+12 1. 38969E+12 926875 1327031. 25 1129864. 583 1230892. 969 1013398. 313 1030678. 214 1082242. 762 1082520. 98 Forecast (F) Simple Exponential Smoothing Method Absolute Error Error (E) (AE) Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Average Deviation (MAD) (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH HOLT'S MODEL We carried out a regression analysis wherein Time period was considered on X-axis and passenger traffic data was taken on Y-axis in order to find out the initial level and trend. Holt's model, also known as trend-corrected exponential smoothing, is applicable in a situation, in which level and trend are observed in the demand data. However, seasonality is not considered in Holt's model.We used the â€Å"Linest Function†of Microsoft Excel to calculate the values of L0 and T0, which is shown in table 5. Table 5: Regression to Find Initial Level and Trend for Holt's Model x (Period) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 270154. 7619 T0 y (Traffic) 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 12943178. 57 L0 Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 71 Singh, Das Once the initial values of level of trend are found, the subsequent values of the level and trend of each period are iteratively calculated following Holt's model which is shown in table 6.This finally helps in finding out the forecasted values of passenger traffic movement as per Holt's model, which is shown in table 6. Table 6 also reveals the forecasting errors. Table 6: Forecasting through Holt's Model Period(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 Quarters Traffic (D) Trend(T) 270528. 095 Level (L) 13215200 Forecast (F) 13213333. 33 13485728. 1 13618648. 82 13987484. 49 14436906. 91 14679788. 95 14765767 15095251. 1 Error (E) -18666. 67 1146728. 1 -1010351 -1513516 459906. 91 1690788. 9 -620233 -122748. 1 Absolute Error (AE) 18666. 66667 1146728. 095 1010351. 181 1513515. 506 459906. 9118 1690788. 949 620232. 9957 122748. 0864 T8=269916. 6 15377443 15647360 15917276 16187193 Formula used Systematic demand = Ft+1=Lt+T t alpha =0. 1 Beta = 0. 2 Lt+1 = alpha(D t+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+T t) T t+1= beta(Lt+1-Lt)+(1-beta)Tt Lev el + Trend Ft+n =Lt+nT t Mean Squared Error (MSE) 348444444. 4 6. 57667E+11 7. 78714E+11 1. 15672E+12 9. 67677E+11 1. 28286E+12 1. 15455E+12 1. 01211E+12 270154. 762 12943178. 7 247593. 533 13371055. 29 267800. 557 13719683. 94 298070. 867 14138836. 04 288872. 729 14390916. 22 255056. 95 267461. 61 14510710. 05 14827790. 3 269916. 571 15107526. 72 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 18666. 66667 582697. 381 725248. 6476 922315. 3622 829833. 6721 973326. 2183 922884. 3294 822867. 299 % Error 0. 141072148 9. 293525369 6. 906495187 9. 763986233 3. 290455117 13. 0170833 4. 031151668 0. 806598018 MAPE 0. 141072148 4. 717298758 5. 447030901 6. 526269734 5. 879106811 7. 068769558 6. 634824146 5. 90629588 L8=15107527 F9 F10 F11 F12 Forecasted Traffic Chopra and Meindl, 2007) FORECASTING THROUGH WINTER'S MODEL Winter’s model, also known as trend and seasonality-corrected ES, is generally employed in a situation in which all characteristic features of demand data, i. e. level (Lt), trend (Tt) and seasonality (St) are observed. The actual demand (Dt), being seasonal in nature, is transformed into deseasonalized demand (Ddt ). The deseasonalized demand data and corresponding time periods are employed to run regression analysis in order to calculate the initial level (L0) and trend (T0) which is shown in table 7.The values of L0 and T0 are then used to find out the estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) of passenger traffic of different time periods. Seasonal factors for each period are calculated using the formula Dt /(Dt) as shown in table 8. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 72 Forecasting the Passenger Table 7: Regression Analysis for Finding out the Deseasonalized Demand X (Period) 3 4 5 6 140439. 5 Y (Deseasonalized demand)(Ddt) 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13619931 T0 L0 Table 8: Calculation of Seasonal Factors for Winter's ModelPeriod(t) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 13760370. 5 13900810 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 5 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 0. 961602015 0. 887646116 1. 041858846 1. 093029187 0. 97590243 0. 898111594 1. 053618578 1. 032187385 Quarters Actual demand (Dt ) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Dt =L+Tt Seasonal factors (Dt / D t) Subsequently seasonality (St) is recalculated for each period as per Winter's model which is shown in table 9.Level and trend of each period are also iteratively calculated following Winter's model which have been mentioned in detail in table 9. Finally table 10 demonstrates the forecasted data of passenger traffic flow along with forecasting errors. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 73 Singh, Das Table 9: Determination of Level, Trend and Seasonal Factors (Winter's Model) Period(t) Quarters Actual Traffic (Dt) Deseasonalized demand (Ddt) Estimated deseasonalized demand (Dt) 13760370. 5 13900810 14018375 14192750 14368630 14427880 14041249. 5 14181689 14322128. 14462568 14603007. 5 14743447 Seasonality St Level(L) Trend(T) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2006 Q- 4 2007 Q- 1 2007 Q- 2 2007 Q- 3 2007 Q- 4 2008 Q- 1 2008 Q- 2 2008 Q- 3 13232000 12339000 14629000 15501000 13977000 12989000 15386000 15218000 0. 968752222 0. 892878855 1. 047738712 1. 062608286 0. 968072702 0. 892415518 1. 047252432 1. 065603208 0. 968770988 0. 892874843 1. 047722994 1. 062255808 13619931 13755292. 34 13891430. 02 14027555. 72 14187811. 57 14334567. 79 14480348. 88 14626058. 49 14744278 140439. 5 139931. 6844 139552. 284 139209. 6254 141314. 2474 141858. 4444 142250. 709 142596. 999 140158. 8902 Table 10: Forecasting through Winter's Model and the Forecasting Errors Forecast(F) 13330389. 5 12406751. 72 14700803. 33 15053722. 24 13871635. 54 12918987. 41 15313552. 98 15737526. 24 Error(E) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 -447 277. 7569 -105364. 4571 -70012. 58968 -72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Absolute Error(AE) 98389. 50148 67751. 71749 71803. 33314 447277. 7569 105364. 4571 70012. 58968 72447. 01855 519526. 2416 Mean Squared Error (MSE) 9680494002 7135394612 6475502625 54870974917 46117113697 39247888533 34390843099 63830427174 Mean Average Deviation (MAD) 98389. 0148 83070. 60949 79314. 85071 171305. 5772 158117. 3532 143433. 226 133292. 3392 181571. 577 % Error 0. 743572411 0. 549085967 0. 490828718 2. 885476788 0. 753841719 0. 539014471 0. 470863243 3. 413893032 MAPE 0. 743572411 0. 646329189 0. 594495699 1. 167240971 1. 084561121 0. 993636679 0. 91895476 1. 230822044 L8=14407445 T8=3284577 Formula used Systematic component of demand =(level+demand)*seasonal factor Ft+1 = (Lt+T t)St+1 Ft+i=(Lt+iTt)St+i L t+1 = alpha (Dt+1/St+1)+(1-alpha)(Lt+Tt) T t+1= Beta (Lt+1 – Lt) + (1- Beta)T t St+p+1= gamma (Dt+1/Lt+1) + (1-gamma)St+1 Alpha = 0. 5 beta=0. 1 gamma=0. 1 Forecasted traffic F9 F10 F11 F12 14419 610. 62 13415083. 6 15888462. 17 16257733. 32 (Chopra and Meindl, 2007) COMPARISON AMONG FOUR FORECASTING METHODS The following figure gives an interesting revelation regarding the behaviour of forecasted data by comparing the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic obtained through all four methods. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 74 Forecasting the Passenger Historical traffic Forecasted traffic Moving Average Simple exponential smoothing Holt’s Model Winter’s ModelFigure 1: Comparison among four forecasting methods The portion of the graph before the vertical line indicates historical data while the portion of the graph after the line is the forecasted data. The forecasted data of the model graph (Winter's Model) replicates the historical data. It indicates a positive trend as well as seasonality. FORMULATION OF SUITABLE STRATEGIES FOR ABSORBING VARYING DEMAND Keeping in view the overall objective of impr oving the supply chain profit, the management should explore all possible alternatives of both demand side as well as supply side options.It is observed that demand for passenger traffic movement is not uniform throughout the year. In order to level the demand, the management of the airlines can undertake the following well-established measures: †¢ †¢ Formulate suitable marketing strategies to create new demand in the lean period. During peak periods, when the demand will exceed capacity, the management needs to offer seats to the customers who will pay the highest fares. Of course, other customers need to be motivated and informed that they would probably be charged less fare, if they undertake their trip at some other period.Shift some proportion of demand from peak period to lean period by offering the customers a reasonable rate of discount in the lean period. Of course, the cost/benefit analysis of this exercise has to be thoroughly examined beforehand. †¢ Journa l of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 75 Singh, Das †¢ Considering the lean periods of the airline in different routes and destinations, the top management needs to explore new destinations which may appear to be very attractive from the perspective of the customers.Accordingly the management can withdraw some of the flights from the existing underloaded routes and ply the same in the new routes. Alternatively the management needs to examine the passenger traffic data of different routes on monthly/quarterly basis. If it is found that during the same period, some destinations experience very high demand while others have low demand, the management may withdraw some of the flights from underutilized routes and introduce the same in the heavily loaded routes. †¢In all cases, the detailed cost/benefit analysis of different alternatives is to be thoroughly examined. Then a particular course of a strategy or a combination of strategies m ay be adopted by the management. CONCLUSION The present study has attempted to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow of Lufthansa Airlines by employing the four forecasting methods, viz. moving average, simple exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's model. The forecasted data suggested by Winter's model reflect the historical pattern in a better manner than three other forecasting methods.This gives a valuable insight to the managers regarding formulation of appropriate strategies in order to absorb varying nature of demand in different quarters. The same kind of study can be replicated in other airlines with suitable modifications. Of course, the present work have not taken into consideration important factors, for example, the prevailing slowdown in the global economy, perceived security threat in the wake of terrorist strikes at different parts of the globe etc.Moreover, the study has considered the total passenger traffic movement of Lufthan sa as a whole and has not paid attention to an individual market segment. This may not provide a clear picture to the management regarding increase or decrease in traffic flow in a particular segment. Future study should take care of this aspect. Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 – March 2011) 76 Forecasting the Passenger The implications of varying demand on supply side need to be thoroughly examined and accordingly suitable strategies should be adopted for improving the profit across the whole supply chain.REFERENCES Bicak, H. A. , Altinay, M. & Jenkins, H. (2005) ‘Forecasting tourism demand of North Cyprus', Journal of Hospitality and Leisure Marketing, Vol. 12, pp. 87-99. Chopra, S and Meindl, P (2007) Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning & Operation, 3rd edition, Pearson Education, New Delhi. Choo S. and Mokhtarian, P. L. (2007) ‘Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US', Transportation Research Part A, 41 pp. 4 -18. Dennis, N. P. S. 2002) ‘Long-term forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport', Journal of Air Transport Management, Vol. 8, pp. 313-324. Dritsakis, N. and Athanasiadis, S. (2000) ‘An econometric model of tourist demand: The case of Greece', Journal of Hospitality and Leisure Marketing, Vol. 7, pp. 39-49. Hamzacebi, C. (2008) ‘Improving artificial neural networks' performance in seasonal time series forecasting', Information Sciences, Vol. 178, pp. 4550-4559. IATA International traffic statistics, 2008a, Facts & Figures – 2008 Traffic Results, Montreal, Quebec, viewed 30 November,